Allan Lichtman, a political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., became famous for correctly predicting President Donald Trump’s upset win four years ago.

But in a new interview with The New York Times, Lichtman makes the case that Trump appears very unlikely to win a second term as the country has been racked for months by the coronavirus pandemic, high unemployment, and civil unrest.

Using his “13 Keys to the White House” strategy Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential election winner since 1984.

Lichtman goes through multiple factors that he says are “keys” to predicting outcomes of presidential races, including the fact that Trump’s party lost the House of Representatives in 2018, the economy has entered into a recession, and there has been “considerable” social unrest over the past three months.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” he said.

Watch the video below.

My Response to Allan Lichtman

Is Allan Lichtman’s talisman about to be chopped? Trump is a President like no other, this election will be an election like no other.

The hype about Allan Lichtman is worrisome for Trump supporters who were banking on him particularly because he has called every election since 1984, but it was only in the 2000 and 2016 elections that were in serious doubt at the end.

It’s almost as if the Democrats looked at his criteria and crafted a perfect earthquake and truly outdone themselves. The long term damage done is incalculable. How many deaths made it worth the cost? Honestly I think this country is getting what it deserves.

To a degree, it appears sort of appears as if everything is orchestrated, from the Pandemic to the unrest as legitimate as they are.

What’s more interesting is Helmut Norpoth predicts a 91% chance of a Trump victory and predicts he will get 362 electoral votes, making an electoral map that looks absurd as this. Who do we believe?

2020 presidential prediction map

To be completely fair the Helmut Norpoth model was also completed in early March, to put that in perspective, the U.S. wasn’t even in lockdown for COVID in early March.

Professor & Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 victory a full 9 months before the election. He says President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November and this was declared on Lou Dobbs in July.

Professor Lichtman did warn about foreign interference from Russia or other outside factors that could undermine the election yet he did not mention the fact that Project Veritas video where the whistleblowers from google came out and said the company was going to prevent President Trump from winning in the fall.

Look for the biggest upset in political history to strike twice by the same man who defeated the deep state once before in President ‘Teflon’ Don in November, victory will be ours.

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About the Author

Big John

I have an Associates & Bachelors Degree in Criminology with a minor in Political Science. I've been blogging since around 2017, my work has been viewed by 800,000 people, and I am a registered Libertarian. My work has been talked about on many of the largest news outlets in the world from Reuters, USA Today, Politifact,, The Quint and many other outlets.

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