Context
The claim that USAID funding cuts led to 300,000 deaths, as stated by Bono and Hostin, stems from a Boston University model by Brooke Nichols estimating that the abrupt cuts to USAID programs could result in approximately 296,000 deaths, including over 200,000 children, due to disruptions in HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and malnutrition programs.
This figure is a projection based on mathematical modeling, not a confirmed death toll, as real-time mortality tracking in affected regions is limited due to weak health systems.
Argument
Specific cases, like the death of a child in Nigeria linked to a USAID-funded clinic closure, support the claim that cuts have caused some deaths.
However, the exact number is debated. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied that any deaths resulted from the cuts, calling such claims “a lie,” though NPR and other sources report evidence of deaths due to disrupted aid.
Critics, including Elon Musk, have labeled Bono’s claim exaggerated, arguing the 300,000 figure is speculative and not based on verified data.
The model’s estimates depend on assumptions about how quickly other organizations might fill funding gaps, which introduces significant uncertainty. While the cuts have undeniably disrupted lifesaving programs, leading to increased mortality, the precise figure of 300,000 remains a rough estimate, not a definitive count. Without comprehensive data, it’s impossible to confirm the exact number of deaths directly attributable to the cuts.
Answer
No, because the 300,000 deaths figure is a projection from a model, not a confirmed count, and lacks verified data to substantiate it.